Russia And The West .. Who Is The Biggest Loser In The Gas Crisis?

Moscow's decision to stop the flow of natural gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline indefinitely confused the leaders of the old continent. Analysts described it as a "new escalation" of the energy war between Russia and the West, and a new stage of "finger-biting" between the two sides.

While the West accused Russia of using energy as a weapon against European consumers, the Kremlin stressed that the shortage in energy supplies was caused by "the sanctions imposed on Russia, which prevent the maintenance of gas infrastructures."

What do you know about Nord Stream 1?

• Russian gas is transported across the bottom of the Baltic Sea to Germany.
• It started operating in November 2011.
• The length of the tube is more than 1200 km.
• Its annual capacity is estimated at 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
• On July 11, "Gazprom" began periodic maintenance operations, which led to a decrease in gas supplies to Europe.
• Germany sent a gas-pipe turbine to Canada for repair.
• "Gazprom" said that the turbine is responsible for pumping about 40 percent of the gas.
• Russia confirmed that "sanctions prevent it from recovering the turbine."
• Germany responded by emphasizing that Russia “is blocking the recovery of this key piece.”

What happened after the start of the Ukraine war?

• On February 22 Berlin announced the suspension of the "Nord Stream 2" project after Moscow recognized two separatist regions in Ukraine.
• On March 8 America banned Russian oil and gas imports to the United States.
• The European Union said it will cut imports of Russian gas by two-thirds this year.
• Britain has confirmed that it will gradually stop its imports of Russian energy by the end of 2022
• On March 23 Russia announced its refusal to pay gas bills in dollars and Euros and asked companies to open accounts in Rubles.
• Washington has agreed to supply Europe with 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas this year.
• Russia cut supplies to several European countries, such as Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Poland, and Latvia.
• On May 30 European leaders agreed to halt most Russian oil imports by the end of the year, without imposing a gas embargo.
• Its gas shipments to the French group "Engie" were completely suspended.
• Germany's import of Russian gas fell from 55 percent to 26 percent of the country's need.
• It is expected that the proportion of Russian gas to Germany will decrease by 10%

Obvious losses for both sides

• Russia loses its energy weapon as a means to protect national interests.
• Russia loses a daily financial resource estimated at 130 million dollars per day (about 20 billion dollars within 3 months).
• The party that breaches the contracts will have to pay billions of Dollars in compensation. 
• Europeans are obliged to find "quick alternatives", such as turning to coal, increasing reliance on renewable energy, and importing liquefied gas from other markets.
• Paralysis in the German economy, as well as some countries close to Russia and depend on it in large proportions.
• France and Spain look to Africa as an alternative.

Alternative markets for Russia

• China, especially after expanding the "Power of Siberia" pipeline and increasing gas exports to more than 10 billion cubic meters.
• India, the republics of Central Asia, the countries of Southeast Asia, and even in the future, Africa

Europe and "alternative sources"

• Norway is the second largest gas supplier in Europe after Russia.
• The Yamal-Europe pipeline that runs through Belarus and Poland to Germany
• Southern Europe can receive Azerbaijani gas via the Trans-Adriatic pipeline to Italy, and the natural gas pipeline via Turkey.
• The United States said it could supply 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas to the European Union this year
• Spanish efforts to revive a project to build a third gas pipeline through the Pyrenees. But France said that new LNG stations, which could be floating, would be a faster and cheaper option than making a new pipeline.
• Other alternative sources such as nuclear energy, renewable energy, hydropower, and coal

The United States "increases the flames of war"

The Russian political analyst, MacLeod Shulman, considered that "there have always been stages of tension between Russia and Europe, and the means to settle differences also exist.  But the intervention of the United States reduced the possibility of finding solutions to the crisis."

He continued, "Washington wants to maintain the same pattern of managing global joints and maintain control over the wheels of global finance, to remain the only player that moves and manages the global economy."

He added in statements to "Sky News Arabia": "Western Europe adopted Washington's vision, which is the idea of ​​reducing dependence on Russian energy resources at the behest of the United States. At the beginning of the crisis, Europe kept the same levels of purchases, but Washington's pressure made the Europeans look for alternatives.

Russia and "muscle flexing"

A fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs in London, Keith Boyfield, said that "stopping the Nordstream pipeline was entirely political," adding: "It is part of the finger-biting phase, as Putin is flexing his muscles and Germany is the biggest loser, mainly due to its excessive reliance on Russian gas. In turn, Russia can sell its gas to Asian markets."

"EU countries need to develop more LNG storage terminals. But this will take at least 18 months to start operating," Boyfield said.

The man pointed out that "the world is heading for a new order, as China is pushing Russia as a military wing to impose a new world order in which the rule of the dollar ends. This is the basis of the current international conflict. Europe is aware of the loser in this war, as new currencies will float in global markets, including the Chinese yuan." The Chinese are the big winners in this war.

Boyfield concluded his speech to "Sky News Arabia", by saying that "Western Europe entered into this conflict, believing that it would be short, but the conflict continued and had its requirements."