Will The Russians Fight For Ukraine's Kherson Or Retreat From It?

Russian troops mass at the head of the Kherson Bridge on the western bank of the Dnipro River, while Ukrainians celebrate field successes, and civilians are evacuated. Will the Ukrainian city witness a major battle, or will the Russians try to cross the river to avoid being besieged?

In an attempt to answer this question, Agence France-Presse spoke to Olga Chirac, a researcher in Eastern European affairs at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, who said that the Kherson Bridge represents "a strategic point, given its location on the Dnipro River. It also has symbolic importance."

But the former member of the Romanian intelligence, Valentin Mathieu, points out that "Kherson is the only capital (of the region) that has been occupied." It is the biggest booty for the Russian forces since the start of the war on February 24.

On paper, the city, located in the south of Ukraine, has everything needed to be one of the primary and decisive sites where disputes are ended, over the ruins of cities.

On Friday, the pro-Moscow authorities in Kherson accused the Ukrainian forces of killing 4 people by bombing the Antonevsky bridge over the Dnipro River, which was used for the evacuation of civilians.

War is won in the city

Retired French General Michel Yakovlev had recently reminded that "the war is won in the city", saying "all the names of battles are the names of cities" such as the Battle of Stalingrad, one of the most famous urban battles in modern history (1942-1943,) which took place between the Soviet army and the forces of the Axis powers.

In the city of Kherson and the region of the same name, the number of Russian soldiers is large and they are experienced to consolidate their presence in the city and inflict massive damage to it if the Ukrainians decide to launch an offensive, an operation that is always costly in terms of human and material losses.

The Russians are alone on the western bank of the Dnipro River on a strip of about 140 km wide, with the river behind them, and to reach their shelter, they will have to pass under the fire of Ukrainian artillery.

They are also at risk of becoming trapped, according to Agence France-Presse.

A "strategic weakness"

The former member of the Romanian intelligence, Valentin Mathieu, believes that the Russian forces are "of good quality, but they are at a dead end," saying "there is a possibility that Kherson will become a new Stalingrad" because the Russians suffer from a "strategic weakness" after they let the Ukrainians entrench their strategic deployment by building a bridgehead over the Inholts River, a tributary of the Dnipro River. This threatens to cut off the Russian front.

Before the counterattack at the end of last August, the Ukrainians "systematically prepared the battlefield" and destroyed bridges, logistical nodes, and command centers, while "the Russians did not have an adequate response," according to Mathieu.

"I think the Russians will try to make Kherson a center of resistance and avoid being besieged at the same time," the Romanian expert adds.

According to Ukrainian Mykhailo Samos, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, "the Kherson bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro no longer makes sense. These forces were stationed to attack Mykolaiv and Odessa (southern Ukraine). They should have been evacuated a long time ago" and redeployed in the East of Dnipro.

What will the Ukrainians do?

Samos believes that they "will not launch an attack for Kherson, as they do not destroy cities like the Russians in Mariupol," he said.

Retired US General Ben Hodges believes that the Ukrainian forces "will keep the Russian forces stationary, and at some point, they will form an enclave."

Besides, if the Ukrainian forces advance further, "they will engage in the fighting in the suburb of Kherson and it will become dangerous. Urban fighting often causes a lot of deaths for the attacker, as lots of Ukrainian soldiers. In terms of damage, it may cause a new Mariupol."

Pierre Grasset, a French researcher at the Sorbonne University's Center for Studies of Identities, International Relations, and European Civilizations, says the city "has more value for both sides if it remains the same."

However, this remains a dilemma for Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of the Ukrainian forces, according to Mathieu, in that "he is under political pressure because the president (Volodymyr Zelensky) wants this strategic victory because Kherson opens the battlefield in the south" towards the Crimea, which was previously annexed by Moscow in 2014.